Not to toot my own horn, but I had another strong year in the predictions business in 2013. Out of 20 major predictions (44 in total, including subparts), I nailed 89%, while another two of the 44 straddle the fence.
To be fair, some of my macro predictions weren’t that hard, including the prediction that the political stalemate would continue. Little did I know that the mess would get so large that the government would actually shut down. I also predicted a return to positive growth, a good US equity climate (but not as good as we got) and continued low interest rates. None of these were rocket science.
On the market structure side, however, I did step out a little further on a limb. Stressing that market structure issues would not fade away, I predicted that high-frequency trading issues would decline though another market structure glitch would strike – which was spot on, given the Goldman options market making issue and the problems with the Tape C SIP.
I also predicted that the topics of transparency and dark pools would be top of hat, but that, at the end of the day, no regulatory actions would be taken in 2013. All of this came true, as dark matching rates reached 37.5% and ended the year (at least November) at 37% (I predicted it would reach 36%); exchanges made the trip to Washington to lobby for Trade-At protection; FINRA introduced an initiative to mandate greater dark pool reporting; and brokers are working to give the buy side more consistent and complete execution reporting.