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23 January 2010

An Overview of Financial Industry Drivers and Hotspots at the Turn of the Decade

SUNGARD VICE CHAIRMAN TILL GULDIMANN identifies three key drivers that are reshaping the markets and require a renewed focus on innovation.

By Till Guldimann, Vice Chairman, Sungard

The past 10 years have led us to a turning point for the financial industry; having come through the darkest night in recent history, we’re emerging into a new dawn.  Three major drivers are reshaping the financial markets today:


In response to the crisis, regulators, investors, and managers have changed their view of how financial institutions need to be run and how the markets should be controlled; demanding more disclosure, improved risk management and more capital. It’s now clear that market infrastructures need to bring more resilience to the system. And, many previously well-respected institutions have been dissolved, restructured or merged into others, causing large amounts of talent to be released into the labor markets; many have found new employment in smaller ventures and start-ups.


Economic growth differentials between developed and emerging markets are widening. Consumers in developed markets have been shocked by loss of employment, security and savings. Their governments accumulated large deficits in bailout and economic stimulus programs – all to be recovered by future tax revenues. Economic growth is down.


Not so in the emerging markets: Consumers were hardly affected by the crisis, governments continue spending on infrastructure and exporters of raw materials enjoy higher commodity prices. The new economies are not only catching up, they can leapfrog old economies in selected industries because they are less burdened by legacy. The consequence is further globalization and growth in trade and financial flows.


Information technology advances unabatedly; the cost to process, store and transmit information continues to drop 15-20% annually. The focus of IT has shifted from institutional to consumer markets. As a consequence, services industries are transforming rapidly, particularly on the retail side, and barriers to entry in many businesses are dropping. Mass individualization replaces mass production and social networks change the way opinions are generated and spread.

These three drivers are leading to emerging hotspots in the financial industry - areas which will demand heightened management attention for both institutions and vendors to stay competitive and exploit new business opportunities. Three of these stand out as areas requiring not just attention, but a renewed focus on innovation:


1. Data management will change dramatically. The dream of centralized, cleaned and controlled data supporting all operations endogenously is being washed away by the data avalanche and ever-decreasing storage costs. Regulators will push for more data standards to increase transparency and to harmonize operations internationally. More systems will automatically publish  the data they contain and generate, and standards will make data analysis tools more pervasive, powerful and user-friendly.


2. We will see the emergence of algorithmic operations. We have already witnessed a revolution in trading – more equity trades today are being initiated by algorithms than by human traders. The idea of using algorithms to continuously optimize operations is emerging and will spread. Expensive and slow human intervention will be focused on changing the decision rules and adapting to changes. Like industry has automated supply chains, finance will automate its middle and back office service chains. There will be  significant advances in business process management and service definitions, and the use of tools to measure and monitor operational efficiency will become common.


3. Participatory business models are on the rise.  The increased global specialization and resulting need to bundle services over networks from multiple providers will lead to more collaborative business models in which participants don’t get paid for the cost or value of their service per se but for a share of the total result. Some software licenses will move to services paid for with shares in outcome, taking the definition of partnership to a new level.

To support these and other priorities for the industry, we will see innovation accelerate and disperse. As technology and transparency lowers barriers of entry, smaller entities with an appetite for composite solutions will foster innovation.  The effect will be more pronounced in emerging markets as there is less systems legacy. Social networks will become more important to stay abreast of new ideas and to find the jewels in the sand.   It will be up to industry participants to intelligently embrace innovation within their organizations and across the financial and technology ecosystems to ensure their continued success by 2020.

 
 

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2 Comments to "An Overview of Financial Industry Drivers and Hotspots at the Turn of the Decade ":
  • Comment_adam_sussman_s
    asussman

    14 January 2010

    It seems that there are new opportunities for information and operational asymmetries for those companies that can continue to climb the data management/automation curve. While this has always existed in regards to specific stocks, it is becoming more and more possible to create true asymmetries at the macro-level.

  • Comment_streambase_mark_palmer_140px
    mrkwpalmer

    21 January 2010

    I like the idea of "algorithmic operations." - about 5 years ago when I was at Apama we spoke of the idea that over time, the "front office and back office would start to come together," driven by the need to be more real-time, since trading was all moving algorithmic. So previously end-of-day functions, such as risk management, would have to become more real-time. So I'm curious, Till - which specific applications in the middle and back office do you see becoming "algorithmic" first? - Mark Palmer, CEO, StreamBase

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